Buttons

You have a button. If you press the button, you have a 50% chance to win $500 and a 50% chance to lose $200. You don’t get to press the button more than once. Do you want to press the button?

You have a button. If you press the button, your friend has a 50% chance to win $500 and a 50% chance to lose $200. You don’t get to press the button more than once, and you don’t get to consult with your friend ahead of time about your friend’s opinion on what you should do. Do you want to press the button?

B is considering murdering C, and currently has a 50% chance of deciding to so. You have a button. If you press the button, with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes up to 80%, and with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes down to 5%. (Suppose, say, the button causes a video to be shown to B that alters B’s impression of C.) Do you want to press the button? If you press the button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead? If you do not press the button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead?

B is considering murdering C, and currently has a 50% chance of deciding to so. You have a button. If you press the button, with a 20% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes up to 100%, and with an 80% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes down to 0%. Do you want to press the button? If you press the button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead?

B is considering murdering C, and currently has a 2% chance of deciding to so. You have a button. If you press the button, with a 1% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes up to 100%, and with an 99% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes down to 0%. Do you want to press the button? If you press the button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead?

B is known to have a mental illness and is considering murdering C, and currently has a 50% chance of deciding to so. You have a button. If you press the button, with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes up to 80%, and with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes down to 5%. Do you want to press the button? If you press the button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead?

B is considering murdering C, and currently has a 50% chance of deciding to so. You have two buttons. If you press the first button, with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes up to 80%, and with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes down to 5%. If you press the second button, you defer this exact same choice to someone else, and you do not know who it is who is next presented this choice. Will you press either button, and if so, which one? If you press the first button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead? If you press the second button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead?

B is considering murdering C, and currently has a 50% chance of deciding to so. You have two buttons. If you press the first button, with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes up to 80%, and with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes down to 5%. If you press the second button, with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes up to 70%, and with a 50% chance, B’s chance of deciding to murder C goes down to 1%. If you press the first button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead? If you press the second button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead? If you do not press either button, and C ends up murdered, how much are you to blame for the fact that C is dead?

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